GEOF321 covers the construction and application of modern models for numerical weather forecasting and climate prediction, including data assimilation, verification and ensemble prediction. In the first part, the elements of numerical models for weather and climate prediction are explained and guidance for their interpretation is given. Weaknesses and caveats associated with numerical schemes, model grid, parameterised processes, boundary and initial conditions are explored and discussed in relation to constraints in operational forecasting. In the second part, the course covers common verification methods, data assimilation procedures, aspects of predictability, and ensemble forecasting.
On completion of the course the student should have the following learning outcomes defined in terms of knowledge, skills and general competence:
Knowledge
The student
Skills
The student
General competence
The student
2 lectures à 2 hours per week
1 exercise à 2 hours per week
2 group discussions